The latest national Weather Service outlook is forecasting below-normal temperatures through February 21st, but an arctic cold blast is not expected.

The market is at a do-or-die moment. There now has to be a decisive move to take out the recent highs or the market will take its cue from the fundamentals, which are bearish.

All the elements that brought us to this level are still with us. The growing demand in China and India is not going away. Nor do I see geopolitical tensions diminishing. I'm not expecting an outbreak or reasonableness in the Middle East anytime soon.

The conclusion is probably being made that any surplus will be promptly sopped up as soon as seasonal demand kicks in.

The comments from OPEC officials are taking some of the froth off last week's rally. It looks like OPEC is set to roll over the existing production quota at the meeting this week.

The current perception is that there is enough crude and heating oil around, thus the slide in prices.

The effects of Katrina will be felt throughout the economy, reducing demand and keeping a lid on energy prices. The federal government is ready to release barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and there is significant help coming from abroad.

The uncertainty relative to Nigeria remains a front burner issue, with more attacks taking place on Monday, but apparently the attacks did not result in any lost production.

The market got ahead of itself earlier this week. With the world in its present state a move into hard assets makes complete sense. Any decline in oil should be looked at as a buying opportunity.

Gasoline has led the way lower. High imports and expectations of a switch to gasoline production have led to concerns that supplies will swell as we go into the summer driving season.